Ørsted sets new, ambitious targets for the group’s long-term strategic and financial development – to invest DKK 200 billion in green energy towards 2025
In connection with the company’s Capital Markets Day, Ørsted’s Board of Directors today approved the group’s new strategic ambition and financial targets.
CEO and President Henrik Poulsen says:
“We expect the global market for renewable energy to more than triple towards 2030. As one of the leading companies within renewable energy, Ørsted has a strong platform to take part in this build-out.
Today, our portfolio consists of 11.9GW of offshore and onshore wind farms and biomass-fired combined heat and power plants that are either in production, under construction or have been given final investment decision (FID). We also have projects with a capacity of 4.7GW for which we’ve been awarded the concessions to construct, but are yet to make the FID. In addition, we have a strong pipeline of projects under development. Towards 2030, it’s our strategic ambition to reach an installed capacity of more than 30GW, provided that the build-out creates value for our shareholders. As an important step, we’re raising our 2025 ambition for offshore wind from 11-12GW to 15GW.
We have a strong growth platform to support our strategic ambition. We want to maintain our position as global market leader in offshore wind and continue our build-out in Europe, North America and Asia. Our second growth platform is our Onshore business, consisting of onshore wind, solar energy and energy storage. It’s our ambition to create a leading North American company within renewable energy. In addition, we’ll continue to explore the growth and value creation potential in our Bioenergy business and strengthen the route to market for our product portfolio in Customer Solutions.
Moving towards 2025, we plan to invest DKK 200 billion in green energy, thereby contributing to the transformation of the global energy system and creating value for our shareholders and the communities we are part of.”
New financial outlook
Our strategic ambition for the build-out of renewable energy will be supported by an extensive investment programme. From 2019-2025, we expect total gross investments of approx DKK 200 billion. Investments in offshore wind farms are expected to constitute 75-85% of the investment programme. Onshore investments are expected to constitute 15-20%, while our combined investments in Bioenergy and Customer Solutions are expected to constitute 0-5% of the investment programme.
Towards 2023, we expect an increase in operating profit (EBITDA) from offshore and onshore wind farms of 20% a year until reaching a level of DKK 25-26 billion in 2023.
Multiple for the capital investments in Borssele 1&2, Hornsea 2, Gode Wind 3&4 and German Cluster 1 is expected to be 13.5 DKKm/MW excluding transmission assets (average weighted capacity, real 2019 prices).
Ørsted has won a series of offshore wind projects in competitive tenders since 2015 (Borssele 1&2, Hornsea 2, Gode Wind 3&4, Greater Changhua 1&2a and 2b&4 and Revolution Wind). The expected unlevered lifecycle IRR for these projects is 7.5-8.5%.
Return on capital employed (ROCE) for 2019-2025 is expected to be approx. 10%. The reduction compared to earlier estimates is a result of earnings from the partial divestment of Hornsea 1 in 2018 being outside this period and of the acquisitions of Lincoln Clean Energy and Deepwater Wind, which increase the capital expenditure in these years and contribute to the earnings with a time lag.
Supported by the expected increased cash flow from future offshore and onshore wind farms, Ørsted still intends to increase its annual dividends by a high single-digit percentage compared to the previous year’s dividends. Today, this policy applies until 2020 and is extended to cover the period until 2025.
The largest share of Ørsted’s operating profit (EBITDA) will still be generated by contract-based or regulated activities. We expect an average of around 90% of EBITDA in 2019-2025 to come from contract-based or regulated activities.
The strategic plan entails an expected increase of the share of green energy in the overall generation from 64% in 2017 to 99% in 2025.
• Gross investments: Around DKK 200 billion from 2019-2025
• Investment allocation:
o Offshore 75-85%
o Onshore 15-20%
o Bioenergy and Customer Solutions 0-5% in total
• Operating income growth from offshore and onshore wind farms: Annual average growth of 20% in the years 2017-2023, corresponding to an EBITDA of DKK 25-26 billion in 2023
• Multiple for the capital investments at 13.5 DKKm/MW, excluding transmission assets, in Borssele 1&2, Hornsea 2, Gode Wind 3&4 and German Cluster 1 (average weighted capacity, real 2019 prices)
• Unlevered lifecycle IRR of 7.5-8.5% for offshore wind projects won in competitive tenders since 2015 (Borssele 1&2, Hornsea 2, Gode Wind 3&4, Greater Changhua 1&2a and 2b&4 and Revolution Wind)
• ROCE: 10%, average 2019-2025
• Dividend policy until 2025: Annual dividend increased with high single-digit
• Share of regulated or contract-based operating income (EBITDA): 90%, average in 2019-2025.